Species distribution modeling that overlooks intraspecific variation is inadequate for proper conservation of marula (Sclerocarya birrea, Anacardiaceae)

نویسندگان

چکیده

Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used to predict the impact of climate change on future species. However, application species-level SDMs ignores intraspecific variation and can be problematic. The aim study was incorporate information into compare predictions subspecies- in a widespread African tree species, Sclerocarya birrea (marula). We bioclimatic variables terrain roughness index calibrate nine algorithms ‘biomod2’ platform. Ensemble were built current suitable habitat marula separately its three subspecies, birrea, caffra multifoliolata. Projections made 2041 − 2060 2081 2100 under general circulation two shared socio-economic pathways. Results showed an expansion as well subspp. time periods. subsp. multifoliolata, contrast, contracted future. Our results show that may fail detect risks for taxa, consequently leading under- or overestimation impacts change. Incorporation improves helps identify appropriate conservation management options.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Global Ecology and Conservation

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2351-9894']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01908